President Obama Is Over 50% Approval, Would Win PA

From PoliticsPA.

A fresh Quinnipiac poll shows President Obama’s approval ratings have gone up in Pennsylvania, giving the President his highest numbers since July 2009. December’s poll had Obama’s approval split, 44 – 43 percent.

The numbers are better across the board for the President, who would win an election against a generic Republican opponent 45 percent to 39 percent. Pennsylvanians believe Obama deserves a second term by a 48 – 45 percent margin.

“Obama’s reversal is fueled in part by his improved standing among independent voters,” credits Quinnipiac pollster Peter Brown. “In December, they split on his job performance 41 – 42 percent; now they approve 50 – 46 percent. Democrats now approve 81 – 14 percent, compared to 72 – 17 percent in December, while Republicans disapprove 80 – 15 percent, compared to 75 – 18 percent in December. His strength is largely among women who give him a thumbs-up 55 – 39 percent, while men split 47 – 49 percent.”

Geographically, Obama’s strongest areas of support are predictable. Here is each region, ranked in order of approval ratings (Region: approval%-disapproval%): Philly: 85-15; SEPA: 55-41; Allegheny: 52-43; NEPA: 50-43; NWPA: 49-47; SWPA: 38-57; Central: 37-57.

Signs of an improving economy likely buoyed the President’s approval. The unemployment rate has steadily fallen in Pennsylvania, with different reports estimating it between 8.1 percent and 8.5 percent, down from its peak of 9.8% in February 2010.

Two things come from this: One, 2010 was a fluke in Pennsylvania, an occasional wave election that keeps this state in the "swing" category. Two, Ed Rendell didn't leave this state so bad with those unemployment numbers, did he?

Oh yeah, one other thing. He gets a 48%-45% re-elect to someone else rating. He beats the generic GOP candidate 45%-39%. In other words, people are souring on the GOP already.