Photo of the Day: Your President, Abroad

Isn't it great to have a President the whole world wants to see?

Polls: Boehner Better Not Shut Down The Government

Anytime two sides go into conflict, someone wins and someone loses. In 1995, Newt Gingrich, a new Speaker of the House with a big, conservative majority, decided to shut down the government in a dispute with President Bill Clinton. The result was pretty bad for Gingrich, as Clinton got most of his way and went on to be re-elected.

Polls suggest that if Speaker John Boehner, in the exact same spot now, wants to replay that fight, he'll find the same result. From TPM:

A PPP poll of registered voters released this week showed that most Americans think a government shutdown would be bad for the country. And if a shutdown does occur, the poll also found that a majority of Americans would blame Republicans for the mess, not President Obama.

Fifty-seven percent of respondents said they believed a government shutdown would be bad for the country. At the same time, 53% said they would put more blame on congressional Republicans than on Obama for a shutdown, while just 22% said the reverse.

That finding backs up an ABC News/Washington Post poll released earlier this week, in which 45% of adults said they would blame Republicans for a shutdown, compared to 30% who said they'd blame Obama.

Basically, read that as saying "do it and pay the price." Accusations of overreaching have already done a lot of damage in state houses, and the national GOP would be well advised to hear those cases out. If they choose to go into this fight with the White House, and take the President to the mat on spending levels, they are at great risk for political destruction. The Democrats will need roughly 25 seats (the exact number will be more clear after re-districting) to re-take the House, and Speaker Boehner would be well advised to not hand it over on his own. I'd be fine if he does though.

Charlie Sheen- Winning!

This is just a "wow."

In what could be the most unusual 2012 poll to date, Public Policy Polling finds that Sheen bests Palin 41 percent to 36 percent among indy voters ahead of 2012. When all voters are included, the former Alaska governor regains a significant advantage, leading Sheen 49 percent to 29 percent.
But the Sheen/Palin match-up may not even be the craziest result in the poll. According to PPP, Democrats would support Sheen over Palin in 2012 by 44 percent to 24 percent. Meanwhile, Republicans would back Sheen over President Obama 37 percent to 28 percent.

So, to sum this madness up: Democrats really dislike Sarah, and Republicans hate Barack too, however the Democrats are backed up in their dislike by independents, while the GOP is off in crazy land. Doesn't this just show the polarization caused by today's politics?

Advice On Social Security

Apparently, the political and economic teams in the White House are fighting about whether to do Social Security Reform now, or after the 2012 Election, and whether or not benefit cuts should be involved. Basically, everyone agrees reform has to get done, but there is debate about when and how. From the Hill:

Social Security became “cash negative” last year as it began paying out more in benefits than it received in revenues. Thus, the federal government has begun borrowing in capital markets to pay off its IOUs to the trust fund.

The trust fund itself has a theoretical $2.6 trillion surplus, but that money has been spent by the federal government like general revenues. The payback has arrived at a very difficult time, when Washington is running a $1.6 trillion budget deficit.

Geithner and his lieutenants argue that benefits reform will give the markets confidence that Obama and Congress have the will to address the problem of long-term national debt.

So, what to do? Do it now. Here's why:

• There is little to no chance that Medicare gets done during this term, being that we're about 10 months from the Iowa Caucuses now, and re-election year beckons for a lot of freshmen in the House. I cannot imagine Speaker Boehner doing a deal. So the only alternative to doing Medicare as a "big fix" to the deficit in 2011 and 2012 is to do Social Security.
• No one wants to see the Republican alternative "fix" to Social Security, privatization (maybe not even the GOP). It's unpopular, and a real drag on them with the older voters who put them in in 2010. By bringing out a reform plan, it will force the GOP Leadership, and Presidential contenders, to come out with a plan of their own. Politically, this is poison.
• No believer in Social Security wants to see the program gutted out to nothing. So, do it now, while the Democrats hold the Veto pen, and not risk losing that before we get the chance.
• Since Medicare isn't an option, this is likely to be the biggest thing he can do with the remainder of his term. It'd be pretty impressive to add this to an impressive first term resume, saying he was the President who did a "big fix" on Social Security. He would be standing up to the left-wing crowd that says "don't do anything" on Social Security, and standing up to the right-wing "all government is bad" crowd at once. Major points with independent voters for re-election there. Also, major points with voters in general, for showing the ability to get big, important things done in a re-election cycle.
• Even though insolvency is over 20 years away, it's the right thing to do, policy wise. The program does have long-term problems, and they would put us in a debt busting situation if not fixed. By doing it now, we avoid those problems, and see major benefits.

So then, I'm sure someone will shriek "cutting benefits is political suicide." Someone else will scream, "we can't afford this damn program." Both are very wrong. Fixing Social Security doesn't take as much effort as people think, and could be done to a benefit. Here's how:

• Eliminate, or change, the cap on payroll taxes for Social Security, which currently rests around $107,000. Why do we have this anyway? I'd get rid of the cap all together, and lower the tax rate as a result (still bringing in much more revenue), but even just an upward change would fix a lot. Raising the cap to say, $250,000, or even $1,000,000, would generate billions, if not trillions long term, to pay back the "iou's" in the trust fund. It's simply "upping" the revenue.
• Raise the retirement age, slowly. Most people in their 20's, like me, assume that the retirement age will be higher for us, because we'll live longer. Even raising it gradually, and only a year or two, saves billions.
• Adjust the "Cost Of Living Adjustments," or COLA's. This is what folks on the left are really the most angry about, but it's probably necessary, in the long run. Social Security's COLA is even more generous than the one enjoyed by most government workers. Just "tinkering" with it, to put it in line with their's, would solve a lot of future problems. Again, for me, a no-brainer.

I'd propose it this year. The President would take the "high ground" in the budget deficit debate, and take control of the "adult conversation" on the Hill. I see all positives here. The President should make his move.

Newt's Same Old Playbook

This is a gem. PoliticalWire did good finding this.

Gingrich once called Clinton "a very smart, very clever tactician whose core system of activity is a combination of counterculture and McGovern... he and his wife were counterculture at Yale... They really are left-wing elitists..."

And now...

In a radio interview, Newt Gingrich said Bill Clinton was "an Arkansas moderate in a liberal party, who had a pretty good common sense understanding of the average person" and a "very down home Arkansas kind of guy when you talk to him," Politico reports.

In contrast, he said President Obama is "a Harvard, Columbia, University of Chicago elitist from the most expensive private school in Hawaii, who lives in an elite, radical worldview in his head."

Bottom line: It doesn't matter if the Democrats run an inbred hillbilly with no idea where New York and Chicago are on the map, the GOP will call them an "educated, elite." You see, the colleges he went to matter, because they are where the "weird, smart people" go. These people hate intelligent people, and I can't figure out why. I get the whole hating cities thing, but hating intelligence is nonsense, and yet it works, over and over again for the GOP.

What The Wisconsin Fight Is Really About: Conservatives Hate Obama

With Locke China-Bound, Some Advice For The White House On Replacing Him At Commerce

President Obama will reportedly name Commerce Secretary Gary Locke to be the new Ambassador to China, a fairly astute choice given that our top bond to China is economic at this point. With his new job though, his old one comes open- Commerce Secretary. This job is key within the economic team, and offers the administration a great opportunity, should they decide to take it.

The top problem many people have had over the first two years of the Obama White House is understanding exactly what his policies are, and what they do. When they know the realities of his choices, they have generally supported them. When they don't know what's happening, they listen to the lunatic statements of the right- that there are "death panels" in Health Care, that the deficit exploded under this President, that only their "cutting" of the budget can create jobs. On the economy, there has been a communications problem for this White House- and they can fix it now.

The President should pick a Commerce Secretary who is not just good on the policy issues- but is also good at the politics and communications that will be necessary to sell the policies of the administration to the public, and get the message through the noise. The problems they had will only be worse in a Presidential Election year where the other side has a primary process. Picking a spokesperson is as important as picking a policy wonk here. In fact, to help grow public confidence in the policies of the White House might be more important now.

President Obama and Jeb Bush In Florida

The Political Situation In Wisconsin

Well, it looks like the GOP is acknowledging reality in Wisconsin, as they are seriously fearful of defections on Governor Walker's union-busting bill. I guess when even Rasmussen says you're viewed negatively by 57% of your state, people in the GOP will take notice. Walker is now admitting he's negotiating, and they seem to understand that 3 Senators are likely to break.

That's because the Democrats are launching re-call efforts against 8 GOP Senators in Wisconsin who support Governor Walker. No one is willing to give up their job to defend a Governor who appears to be lost. The only thing that may save him from a re-call himself is time, and we will see if that even helps.

All of this comes amidst polling showing the President is recovering in Wisconsin, and would win solidly right now. This is not what the GOP had in mind last November.

Unemployment Back Under 9%

Well, more good news for the President's 2012 re-election hopes, and the nation at-large: unemployment fell to 8.9% as the economy added 192,000 jobs. Somewhere at the RNC, staffers were screaming in anger.

Basically, the recession is, and has been, over in the private sector. While corporations have been stockpiling profits in the last year, the private sector has steadily added jobs every month. The drops have been in the public sector, amongst states and cities, practicing "austerity." In February, the private sector added a quite healthy 222,000 jobs. Republican Governors everywhere are simply laying people off. Their counterparts in Congress want to slash spending federally, and cut all of those jobs too. Why? In the name of the deficit? It's not exactly balancing the budget. It's threatening to put us back in a recession. They don't care, it's 2012 politics. The fact is, we're seeing the results of two years of positive action succeed in the private sector. We have yet to see any jobs legislation from this Congress.

The GOP: Still The Party Of No

Fresh off of cutting a deal (also to be read, covering their @$$) to keep the government from shutting down Friday, the GOP is back at saying no to any form of consensus on health care reform.

Sen. Orrin Hatch on Tuesday called President Barack Obama’s endorsement of the Wyden-Brown amendment to increase state flexibility “bull.”
“This date-shift gimmick does nothing to change the fundamental problems of Obamacare,” the ranking member on the Senate Finance Committee told the Federation of American Hospitals conference. “I went on TV yesterday after Secretary [Kathleen] Sebelius and she was going on about how much flexibility this was going to give the states and how much better it was going to be for everyone. That’s bull. States still would have to provide Washington-dictated coverage and waivers fail to give relief on the Medicaid spending mandate.”

“Flexibility … I believe the technical legal term is baloney,” the Utah Republican said.

See, the bill in question would allow states to opt out of the mandate on purchasing care for all citizens, IF they come up with their own way to achieve universal care in a few years. Currently, they get to opt out in 2017, if they have their own plan. This bill would allow that to happen in 2017.

In remarks to the National Governors Association, Mr. Obama said he backed legislation that would enable states to request federal permission to withdraw from the law’s mandates in 2014 rather than in 2017 as long as they could prove that they could find other ways to cover as many people as the original law would and at the same cost. The earlier date is when many of the act’s central provisions take effect, including requirements that most individuals obtain health insurance and that employers of a certain size offer coverage to workers or pay a penalty.
“I think that’s a reasonable proposal; I support it,” Mr. Obama told the governors, who were gathered in the State Dining Room of the White House.

“It will give you flexibility more quickly while still guaranteeing the American people reform.”

If you doubt their extremism:

As [Sen. John] Barrasso and other Republicans argued forthrightly earlier this year, the only opt out provisions they really support are ones that fatally undermine the law.
And even [Sen Scott] Brown, who co-authored this plan has told us that he'd still support full repeal, even if Congress adopted this measure.

At a weekly Capitol briefing with reporters Monday, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor said Obama's olive branch really just masks the case for full repeal.

"It is just making our point that not only have we seen a variety of exceptions and waivers issued for the private sector under the act, but now we are seeing how that act is troubling states in a real way as far as their trying to figure out the fiscal situations," he said.

Aside from the stupidity of Cantor's argument on it's face, remember that states like Vermont are just going the "single-payer" route, because they see this as a weaker plan from Washington. The fact is, the GOP is a group of extremists, intent on reverting us to corporate controlled health care. If they get repeal, we're right back where we started.

National Nurses Association To Obama: Get Off The Sidelines

Playing the fence doesn't work too long. Yes, President Obama has called out Governor Walker's power grab in Wisconsin. Yes, he's taken fire from the right over it. He's also stayed relatively quiet, and avoided going to Madison himself. Now, the National Nurses' Association Union is calling him out for standing on the sidelines.

Spot on. There's a time to fight for everyone. This President has mostly avoided bruising fights for progressive causes and institutions, such as the Public Option, which was popular, during the health care fight. He's been measured in winding down the wars he inherited, and reserved on financial regulatory reform. Take off the gloves and throw a punch, Mr. President. You're doing a good job in the office, and your supporters know it. We'll back you.

Latinos Almost Universally Disapprove Of The GOP's Racism

This is remarkable, and a serious sign to the President as to what to do to eliminate the GOP in the 2012 Election.

Latino support for the Republican Party is weak, despite growing concerns over President Obama's lack of immigration solutions, according to a recent poll.

The poll, conducted by impreMedia, a U.S.-based Hispanic news and information organization, reported that only 9 percent of Latino voters said they would vote for a Republican candidate in general, while 8 percent said they might.

Although the poll showed that many Latinos lacked confidence in the GOP, the survey also showed that some were unsure about whether they would support Obama. Only 43 percent said they would vote for the president's re-election in 2012, although 70 percent said they approved of Obama.

"I think the most interesting story here is how badly the Republicans are faring with Latinos," said Gary Segura, a political science professor at Stanford University. "It is as if Latinos are not pro-Democrat, but rather anti-Republican."

The poll, which surveyed 500 Latino voters between Jan. 24 and Feb. 5 in states with high Hispanic populations, also revealed that 47 percent of participants ranked immigration as the top priority that should be addressed by Obama and Congress.

This makes the GOP's road in 2012 nearly impossible, but their future is likely bleak. A 17% share of the 2012 Latino vote in New Mexico, Nevada, California, and Colorado makes those states impossible, and could make Texas and Arizona difficult holds for the GOP. Their racism has finally alienated Latinos completely. It's hard to come back from that.

So, how does the President go from 43% to 80%? Well, it's simple. Go to the Hill and call for comprehensive immigration reform. Call for it, campaign for it, and push the issue. Either the GOP passes it, which is good, or they commit suicide, which is also good, since it will still happen. The GOP is divided on this issue- the bigots want to send back the Latinos, and the "business conservatives" want to keep them here, as people without rights, making slave wages. Force their hand. Call their bluff.

An Update On 2012: Mixed News For the President

Good news, bad news. That's the way things look. What do they come out to?

First, the bad news for the White House. Mike Huckabee ties the President in a poll, Mitt Romney and Donald Trump get close, and Sarah Palin still gets crushed. This poll seems a bit outside of the norm of late, and shouldn't be taken as gospel yet. Remember, the President hasn't begun to campaign yet, which is something he will do at some point, and he's good at it. Donald Trump seems a lot cooler now, before he has to defend himself.

Then, there's the good news. The President is doing pretty damn well in the south. In Mississippi, his approval is 47.1%. That's impressive! If I had to guess right now, he'll perform better than expected down there. If the GOP nominates a Romney, or anyone else who is not sufficiently conservative.

Taken together, it's going to be tough to beat the President. Any GOP nominee will have to really play up their conservatism to bring back the southern states, and then hope they can win up in the Northeast and "blue states," or the states least likely to approve of that. Winning the popular vote may be close to impossible for the GOP in 2012, and the electoral college is going to be threading a needle.

Casey Looking Solid

Unbeatable? No. Particularly solid in the context of what we just saw in 2010? Yes. From PoliticsPA:

Bob Casey continues to enjoy relatively strong favorability, according to a poll obtained by PoliticsPA from the firm Municipoll. 46 percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Casey, compared with only 30 percent of voters with an unfavorable opinion.

The survey of 670 likely voters was conducted via IVR from Feb. 21-23, 2011.

These results closely resemble those in last week’s Quinnipiac poll, which showed Casey with a net favorable job approval rating of 44 percent to 24 percent.

“Maybe Bob Casey isn’t unbeatable but he’s looking pretty darn good for a Democrat in a swing state that Senate Republicans are supposedly talking about targeting next year,” said Ed Haggerty, President of Municipoll.

There is no front runner for the GOP nomination to challenge Casey, but the Senator performs well against several of the names that have been mentioned so far. Former US Senator Rick Santorum presents the stiffest challenge but Casey bests him 50 to 38 percent. Casey also beats Congressman Charlie Dent, 51 to 32 percent and Congressman Jim Gerlach, 48 to 34 percent.

The down side for Casey? After four years in office, 24 percent of likely voters still don’t know enough about him to form an opinion.

The poll also found President Obama’s favorability at 51 percent in the state (versus 44 percent unfavorable), again echoing last week’s Quinnipiac poll.

Newly elected Republicans Governor Tom Corbett and Senator Pat Toomey enjoy net favorable ratings, with Corbett at 48 percent to 31 percent, and Toomey at 42 percent to 35 percent. However, by a 50 percent to 31 percent margin, voter expect Corbett to break his no texes, no fees pledge.

President Obama On Libya

John Boehner's Response Says It All: The GOP Has Used Evangelical Americans For Their Votes

Do you remember 2004? I sure do. We need to ban gay marriage by any means necessary was the GOP's battle cry of the day. States passed their own state constitutional amendments banning it, across the country. President Bush campaigned against gay-marriage, and said he'd support a constitutional amendment to define marriage as being one man, and one woman. That amendment never came. The GOP tried to gin the religious conservatives up again in 2005 with the Terry Shiavo case, but when that hit the floor with a loud thud, they stopped. By 2008, the religious conservatism wasn't a main argument in their election rhetoric, and in 2010, they purposely avoided it.

Square all of their past religion baiting with this statement from Speaker John Boehner today after President Obama decided to no longer defend the "Defense Of Marriage Act" in appeals court.

House Speaker John Boehner's spokesman Michael Steel questions the Obama administration's decision to halt its legal defense of DOMA.

"While Americans want Washington to focus on creating jobs and cutting spending, the President will have to explain why he thinks now is the appropriate time to stir up a controversial issue that sharply divides the nation," he said in a statement.

Ha... his spokesman's name is Michael Steel.

Ok, aside from that silly point: Where's the fire at? While the GOP has thrown some bones the way of the religious right-wing on abortion in this Congress, all "moral" issues now seem to be on the back-burner to fiscal ones. This attempt at re-branding by the GOP is clearly aimed at making them relevant with younger voters, most of whom really don't care who you go to bed with, provided they're a consenting adult. It's just not cool to be "gay bashing" now. And Boehner's response indicates that: he's saying this is a silly issue to be fighting over, and criticizing the President for bringing it up. Can anyone imagine a GOP leader doing that in 2004? Hell no you can't. They'd have relished the fight, and pushed it up a notch.

This sort of proves a bottom line point. Sure, many Republican Congressmen actually do agree with the right-wing religious folks, but they're not really committed to act. They only want to appease the religious right to the extent that it's popular, and if it's not, they won't even acknowledge it. Even more to the point, there never was a constitutional amendment voted on, nor have they overturned "Roe v. Wade" in nearly 40 years. Why is that? It's because they never really want to do that. Voting for the Republicans on cultural values is a total, and complete waste. You won't get anything tangible back in return.

The White House In Cleveland For Small Business Forum

President Obama: Walker Is Union-Busting

The President said:

"Some of what I've heard coming out of Wisconsin, where they're just making it harder for public employees to collectively bargain generally, seems like more of an assault on unions. I think everybody's got to make some adjustments, but I think it's also important to recognize that public employees make enormous contributions to our states and our citizens."

Is it too early to go all "California" on Walker and start a re-call drive?

President Obama Is Over 50% Approval, Would Win PA

From PoliticsPA.

A fresh Quinnipiac poll shows President Obama’s approval ratings have gone up in Pennsylvania, giving the President his highest numbers since July 2009. December’s poll had Obama’s approval split, 44 – 43 percent.

The numbers are better across the board for the President, who would win an election against a generic Republican opponent 45 percent to 39 percent. Pennsylvanians believe Obama deserves a second term by a 48 – 45 percent margin.

“Obama’s reversal is fueled in part by his improved standing among independent voters,” credits Quinnipiac pollster Peter Brown. “In December, they split on his job performance 41 – 42 percent; now they approve 50 – 46 percent. Democrats now approve 81 – 14 percent, compared to 72 – 17 percent in December, while Republicans disapprove 80 – 15 percent, compared to 75 – 18 percent in December. His strength is largely among women who give him a thumbs-up 55 – 39 percent, while men split 47 – 49 percent.”

Geographically, Obama’s strongest areas of support are predictable. Here is each region, ranked in order of approval ratings (Region: approval%-disapproval%): Philly: 85-15; SEPA: 55-41; Allegheny: 52-43; NEPA: 50-43; NWPA: 49-47; SWPA: 38-57; Central: 37-57.

Signs of an improving economy likely buoyed the President’s approval. The unemployment rate has steadily fallen in Pennsylvania, with different reports estimating it between 8.1 percent and 8.5 percent, down from its peak of 9.8% in February 2010.

Two things come from this: One, 2010 was a fluke in Pennsylvania, an occasional wave election that keeps this state in the "swing" category. Two, Ed Rendell didn't leave this state so bad with those unemployment numbers, did he?

Oh yeah, one other thing. He gets a 48%-45% re-elect to someone else rating. He beats the generic GOP candidate 45%-39%. In other words, people are souring on the GOP already.