The GOP's Colorado, And National Problem

Apparently, nearly 7 in 10 Republicans nationally want to nominate a candidate for President who can beat President Obama, as opposed to 29% who say agreeing with their nominee ideologically is more important. Some are saying this dumps cold water on Democrats who think President Obama is going to get to run against a whack-job, like say Michele Bachmann or Sarah Palin. They would say this points toward a Romney, Huckabee, Barbour, or Pawlenty nomination.

Let's start be remembering that Republican voters right now don't live in reality. They think we can balance the federal budget by cutting non-defense discretionary spending to the bone. They think Medicare isn't a government program. Some of them still think Iraq had WMD's. Many of them still believe President Obama is a Muslim. Last year, in states like Delaware, Colorado, Nevada, and Alaska, they did not nominate "electable" Republicans, but instead nominated lunatics. They were saying they wanted electability then too. This is the same party that thinks President Reagan would agree with the "Minute Men" project for God's sakes, even though he gave Amnesty to millions.

Aside from last year's Senate races in the states mentioned above, how can we tell where the GOP is likely to go next year in the Presidential race? Let's use swing-state Colorado as a great example. Against a "moderate" generic-Republican, Obama has a modest lead, and independents say they are open to voting for the Republican. Against a conservative Republican candidate, he leads by a double-digit, healthy amount. So of course, the GOP voters, worried about electability, want to nominate a moderate candidate. Especially in a state where Romney would probably run strong, right?

66% want to nominate a conservative. 25% want a moderate.

Hence, the GOP's problem. Sure, Rand Paul won a Senate seat, and some Tea Partiers won individual House seats last year. That's a lot different than winning a Presidential swing-state. The furthest right-wing people elected in swing-states last year, Senators Portman, Toomey, and Johnson, would be called "normal" next to Palin or Bachmann, or for that matter next to Pawlenty at this point, as he calls to re-instate "Don't Ask, Don't Tell." The GOP wants an electable candidate, but they want that electable candidate to believe things that people don't want to vote for. I suppose you'll have them saying they want the "electable candidate who wants to privatize Social Security and turn Medicare into a voucher program" soon. Until reality, and not Fox reality, sets into the GOP base, this electability question isn't even really a question.