Newt's Same Old Playbook

This is a gem. PoliticalWire did good finding this.

Gingrich once called Clinton "a very smart, very clever tactician whose core system of activity is a combination of counterculture and McGovern... he and his wife were counterculture at Yale... They really are left-wing elitists..."

And now...

In a radio interview, Newt Gingrich said Bill Clinton was "an Arkansas moderate in a liberal party, who had a pretty good common sense understanding of the average person" and a "very down home Arkansas kind of guy when you talk to him," Politico reports.

In contrast, he said President Obama is "a Harvard, Columbia, University of Chicago elitist from the most expensive private school in Hawaii, who lives in an elite, radical worldview in his head."

Bottom line: It doesn't matter if the Democrats run an inbred hillbilly with no idea where New York and Chicago are on the map, the GOP will call them an "educated, elite." You see, the colleges he went to matter, because they are where the "weird, smart people" go. These people hate intelligent people, and I can't figure out why. I get the whole hating cities thing, but hating intelligence is nonsense, and yet it works, over and over again for the GOP.

The Nut-Jobs Talk Faith With Iowa

The first major event in Iowa of the 2012 Presidential season has come and gone, albeit without Romney, Huckabee, or Palin. Don't get down though, as the lacking of front-running candidates didn't dampen the crazy talk.

The candidates essentially pledged the same thing, with a few variations in language and emphasis: defending marriage as a covenant between man and woman; curbing abortion; slashing the federal deficit; and shifting power away from Washington in favor of state and local governments.

Tim Pawlenty, the former governor of Minnesota, delivered one of numerous condemnations of President Obama and the secular tilt that he and others blamed on the country's fraying morality.

"We need to be a country that turns toward God," he said. "Not a country that turns away from God."

Playing off the title of his recent book, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich decried the "secular socialists" surrounding the president and said they "could not possibly lead the country to a successful future."

Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum decried the "entitlement attitude" propagated by Democrats in Washington and suggested Obama's push for national healthcare legislation was akin to a dope dealer trying to hook someone on drugs.

"If that's not a moral issue," Santorum said, "I don't know what is."

There was no interaction among the candidates, who took turns speaking for about 10 minutes each and never appeared together onstage. The closest anyone came to engaging in debate was Roemer, who pledged to accept no more than $100 from any single source. That, he said, is the only way to accomplish what everyone else promised to do.

The fifth contender on the stage, former Godfather's Pizza chief executive and radio talk show host Herman Cain, echoed GOP criticisms of Obama as insufficiently convinced of American exceptionalism.

"I have a breaking news announcement for President Obama: The United States of America is not going to become the United States of Europe. Not on our watch," he said.

Get this straight- Republican means saving the unborn children, stopping gays from legal recognition of their relationship, gutting spending, and states' rights. President Obama is pro-Europe, doesn't believe we have divine right, "like a drug dealer," a "secular socialist," and wants to turn us away from God.

These guys are all nuts.

President Obama Is Solid In New Mexico

In 2008, President Obama won New Mexico by 15%. It was one of his most impressive victories of the year. President Obama looks set to win the state again, with approval that seems to match up with his 2008 numbers. This is real bad news for the GOP.

President Obama leads Mitt Romney by 16%, 53%-37%. He leads Mike Huckabee by 19%, up 55%-36%. He leads Newt Gingrich by 21%, 56%-35%. He leads Sarah Palin by an amazing 62%-33%. None of the GOP front-runners gets out of 35% range, and none hold him below 53%.

Huckabee Leads, Palin Gaining Ground

Well, welcome to the GOP 2012 Primary season, complete with like zero declared candidates. Mike Huckabee leads, Sarah Palin is gaining, and Mitt and Newt are dropping according to CNN. Apparently all the talk about social conservatives losing ground in the GOP is just a bunch of hot air.

This tells me two things: Palin's brand of Tea Party backing isn't going away, and being the "intellectual thinker" in the field isn't exactly a great idea. Huckabee may have strong personal qualities, but I'm unconvinced he's electable. Yes, he may draw out the 2004 Evangelical voters that backed Bush, but will he lose the Tea Party crowd? I know this though, he's a better bet than Palin for the GOP.

Newt Rakes In The Money

Newt Gingrich raised $14.5 million last year, more than double second-place Mitt Romney, amongst the Republican Presidential aspirants. He raised a majority of it through a 527 though, meaning Romney probably did raise the most amongst candidates. Gingrich is certainly showing a lot of inside strength though.

Obama Beats Palin In South Carolina

President Barack Obama leads Sarah Palin 47%-41% in South Carolina. In fact, he leads Newt Gingrich too, but by only 1% (44%-43%). He trails Mitt Romney (49%-42%) and Mike Huckabee (49%-43%), however is doing better than he did in 2008 there.

Ezra Klein asks a question I have been asking myself: Is the President's strong polling keeping candidates out of the 2012 race so far? It's worth asking because four years ago at this time, every serious candidate for President was in- Obama, Clinton, McCain, Romney, and Huckabee included. Are they waiting to see where the race is in late spring. At what point does the lack of a strong candidate become a GOP embarrassment?

DeMint Leads In South Carolina

IF Jim DeMint runs for President, PPP says he leads his home-state of South Carolina, a key contest in the race for President. If he doesn't run, Mike Huckabee has the early lead. From their article:

DeMint is certainly well liked with the Republican base in his home state, sporting a 77/12 approval breakdown. But they're closely divided on whether he should go for the White House or not, with 40% of GOP voters expressing support for such a move but 37% opposed and 23% not offering an opinion. Because of that tepidness toward him running for President he just narrowly leads the primary in the state. 24% of voters say DeMint would be their top choice, followed by 20% for Huckabee, 17% for Mitt Romney, 12% for Sarah Palin, 10% for Newt Gingrich, 4% for Ron Paul, 3% for Tim Pawlenty, and 2% for Mitch Daniels. DeMint wouldn't be able to count on a blowout victory on the home front.

If you take DeMint out of the equation Huckabee is the biggest beneficiary. He would lead the state with 26% to 20% for Romney, 18% for Palin, 13% for Gingrich, 7% for Paul, 4% for Pawlenty, and 3% for Daniels.

This is bad news for Palin and Gingrich. Do the math here: Huckabee leads Iowa and South Carolina, Romney leads New Hampshire and Nevada. Romney would be favored in Michigan. This only really leaves Florida in play, and why would they do any better there? DeMint running could cut Huckabee's candidacy down at the knees by taking South Carolina, but he'd hardly be a lock there. All in all, bad news for Palin and Gingrich.

PPP: Obama Liked By, Would Win North Carolina

PPP Polling shows that President Obama's approval is at 49%-47% approve to disapprove in North Carolina, a state he narrowly became the first Democrat to carry since 1976. He leads all of the main GOP Presidential contenders as well. He leads Mitt Romney 47%-44%, Mike Huckabee 49%-45%, New Gingrich 50%-44%, and Sarah Palin 50%-41%.

The GOP literally cannot win the 2012 Presidential race without carrying North Carolina, there's no mathematical way to do it. This is a good sign for the President. Even if he doesn't win North Carolina again, he can make the GOP spend mountains of cash if he remains positively viewed there.

Newt Gingrich To Base His Campaign In Georgia

TPM is citing an Atlanta Journal-Constitution report saying that former House Speaker Gingrich will base his campaign out of Georgia. From the report:

In the last 24 hours, former U.S. House speaker Newt Gingrich has touched base with several prominent Republicans in his former home state, telling them that he intends to make a run for president in 2012 using Georgia as his base - and that he already has his eye on office space in Buckhead for a campaign headquarters.

Gingrich met on Thursday with [Governor] Nathan Deal, whom Gingrich endorsed during a critical phase of last year's Republican primary for governor.

Former? Last I checked, Gingrich is still from Georgia. Georgia is an interesting choice. Does this mean he's going to go hard after South Carolina? I'm not sure.

President Obama Leads the GOP Front-Runners In The Battlegrounds

While every poll puts President Obama rising, that really doesn't answer the questions of his re-election. Will he win in 2012? Well, the electoral college answers a lot of that. PPP Polling decided to test it out. They polled six swing states won by President Bush and President Obama, with the President facing the leading four Republicans for President. Their polls in Florida, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia were revealing.

• Florida- The President beats Gingrich by 5%, same for Huckabee. He beats Palin by 14%. He leads Romney by statistically unimportant 2%.
• Iowa- The President beats Gingrich by 13%, Palin by 16%, Romney by 6%, and Huckabee by 4%. Only Huckabee looks competitive.
• Nevada- The President crushes Gingrich by 11%, Huckabee by 10%, and Palin by 13%. Romney trails by only 1%.
• North Carolina- The President kills Palin by 14%. Gingrich sits 6% back. Romney is just 2% back. Huckabee actually leads by 1%.
• Ohio- Gingrich is 6% back, Palin is 7% back. Romney is 2% back, Huckabee 1% back.
• Virginia- Both Gingrich and Palin sit 11% back, a bit surprising. Romney and Huckabee trail by 5%.

The bottom line? The GOP has a tough electoral road ahead to win the Presidency, particularly if the Tea Party backed candidates win primaries. 

Meet The GOP Field: The Front-Runners

It's that time again.... the 2012 Election is going to begin any day now (well, we think). By my count, 18 Republican names are floating about for 2012, and in the coming months at least some of them will arrive in Des Moines and Nashua, and will begin courting the activists in Columbia and Carson City. You'll see them from Sioux City to Davenport, and everywhere in between. You'll see them on the Sea Coast, and in Manchester. The campaign will begin, in earnest.

We're going to start by looking at the heavyweights of the GOP Primary field for 2012. The four candidates we open with all start with a substantial head-start on the field- but with some drawbacks. We'll review who they are, how we describe them, and why they will or won't win the nomination. Here we go.

• Mike Huckabee- The former Governor of Arkansas. He is both social conservative, and by the current GOP's standards an economic moderate. Don't get me wrong, Huckabee is right of center for sure on economics, but he's not for abolishing the Department of Education, right now. Huckabee's pathway to victory is clear. He must reclaim the social conservative base that won him Iowa in 2008, and then use that momentum to capture the South Carolina primary afterwards to catapult him to the nomination. If he loses, it'll be because he's old news, his rhetoric is too soft, and he's the "other guy from Hope, Arkansas."
• Sarah Palin- The former Governor of Alaska. She is the darling of the Tea Party activists, a star with social conservatives, the largest media celebrity in the race, and the candidate of the anti-intellectualism movement. Palin can win the nomination because she inspires the exact kind of activists that carry the day in Iowa, her rhetoric reaches the Tea Party crowd who has been winning primaries, and has less of a record to explain than the other front-runners. If she loses, it'll be because she's unelectable, is hopeless in New Hampshire's open primary, and she runs a lazy, media driven campaign. Her race could be over quick with a weak showing in Iowa, or no wins in Iowa and South Carolina.
• Mitt Romney- The former Governor of Massachusetts. Romney is supposed to be Mr. Electable, straight out of central-casting. He is guy who can reach independents, the "moderate" on social issues who can speak in "business language." Romney must build on his runner-up finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire in 2008, and most certainly must win New Hampshire. If he loses, it's because he's altered every position he has, he gets called a liberal, his health care law is too big of an issue, he's unable to come up with a platform of ideas, he's a re-run candidate, and his ugly corporate past comes up.
• Newt Gingrich- The former Speaker of the House of Representatives. Gingrich is the "modern intellectual father" of the conservative movement, a social and economic conservative. Gingrich can run on the "good old days"- the 90's, particularly in a bad economy. He will attempt to run strong in all of the early states, and may be the only of the front-runners who can do so. If he loses, it'll be because his closet has more skeletons than a grave yard, is no longer fresh and exciting, and he has no extremely strong appeal in any of these early states, and oh yeah, he isn't electable.

Well, that's that for now. We'll have more later.

PPP: That Electability Argument Is Gonna Be Hard

Not only are his approval numbers good, but his 2012 match-up numbers are good too. Romney, Huckabee, Gingrich, and Palin, the only potential GOP candidates with much national name recognition, all trailed the President head-to-head. For good measure, Michele Bachmann is getting whipped too. PPP says the President leads Romney and Huckabee by 5 points, Gingrich by 12, Palin by 17, and Bachmann by 18.

Basically, this changes the calculus a bit. The popular logic had been that Mitt Romney would run as the "electable" candidate. Four years ago, Mike Huckabee had to run against that mantra, being considered unelectable by most. Well, now, they are just as electable, and both will have a very difficult time (because most people who are open to voting for these two, already know them). Gingrich and Palin both have nearly unanimous name recognition, and get beaten soundly. Bachmann is just way, way behind. It's tough for any of these people to claim the "electability" argument in Iowa and New Hampshire.

So who wins this poll? Everybody else. Haley Barbour wins this poll. Time Pawlenty wins this poll. Hell, Chris Christie, Scott Brown, and Bobby Jindal win this poll. If NONE of the front-runners have a very good chance to beat the President, than why wouldn't caucus-goers in Iowa, or voters in New Hampshire and South Carolina give them a look? It's worth considering as we go further.