Looks Like Charlie Dent and Jim Gerlach Are Wimping Out

I've already told you why Charlie Dent should go ahead and run for the U.S. Senate. Passing now means giving up for at least 8 years any chance at higher office, and probably having stayed in the House so long that he won't be viewed as viable. He'll never be a major chairman, or leader in the House. Well, apparently, I'm not so convincing, as Dent's not expected to enter, nor is Jim Gerlach.

Basically, here's all they're seeing.

Gerlach and Dent have been in office longer than the rookies elected last year. But after being targeted relentlessly by Democrats in recent years — Gerlach especially — both are finally in seats that are relatively secure. They have plum new committee assignments and can expect their seats to become safer in the coming Republican-controlled redistricting process.

But Republican reluctance to engage Casey also reflects the inherent strength of the senator’s political profile. A moderate, anti-abortion Democrat from working-class Scranton and the son of a popular former governor, Casey is a formidable target. Forty-eight percent of registered voters approved of his job performance and only 22 percent disapproved in a recent Muhlenberg College poll — about as high as an incumbent in swing-state Pennsylvania can realistically enjoy. And he has the added benefit of standing for reelection in a presidential election year, when turnout in the Democratic strongholds of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh will be significantly higher than in 2010.

So basically, they can't win, and it would be hard to try. So instead, Eastern Pennsylvania is stuck with a pair of Congressmen who aren't going anywhere, aren't getting much done, and just want us to keep them around in Congress for life.

Wonderful.

Casey Looking Solid

Unbeatable? No. Particularly solid in the context of what we just saw in 2010? Yes. From PoliticsPA:

Bob Casey continues to enjoy relatively strong favorability, according to a poll obtained by PoliticsPA from the firm Municipoll. 46 percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Casey, compared with only 30 percent of voters with an unfavorable opinion.

The survey of 670 likely voters was conducted via IVR from Feb. 21-23, 2011.

These results closely resemble those in last week’s Quinnipiac poll, which showed Casey with a net favorable job approval rating of 44 percent to 24 percent.

“Maybe Bob Casey isn’t unbeatable but he’s looking pretty darn good for a Democrat in a swing state that Senate Republicans are supposedly talking about targeting next year,” said Ed Haggerty, President of Municipoll.

There is no front runner for the GOP nomination to challenge Casey, but the Senator performs well against several of the names that have been mentioned so far. Former US Senator Rick Santorum presents the stiffest challenge but Casey bests him 50 to 38 percent. Casey also beats Congressman Charlie Dent, 51 to 32 percent and Congressman Jim Gerlach, 48 to 34 percent.

The down side for Casey? After four years in office, 24 percent of likely voters still don’t know enough about him to form an opinion.

The poll also found President Obama’s favorability at 51 percent in the state (versus 44 percent unfavorable), again echoing last week’s Quinnipiac poll.

Newly elected Republicans Governor Tom Corbett and Senator Pat Toomey enjoy net favorable ratings, with Corbett at 48 percent to 31 percent, and Toomey at 42 percent to 35 percent. However, by a 50 percent to 31 percent margin, voter expect Corbett to break his no texes, no fees pledge.

This Clown Stands Between Charlie Dent and Senator Casey

My local Congressman, Charlie Dent, has been rumored to be a candidate for the U.S. Senate, and why not? He'll never be Speaker or in leadership in a far-right Republican Caucus in the House, the Governor's Mansion and one Senate seat are blocked to him by other Republicans, and there is no other higher office to seek. So basically, it's put up or shut up time for him. One has to assume that eventually residents of the Lehigh Valley will become tired of a back-bencher who doesn't pass much substantial legislation, and caucuses with a party they largely don't identify with. Basically, if he doesn't run now, he'll never be on par for influence with say, Senator Toomey.

Meet Marc Scaringi (pictured above), the far-right whack job that is currently in the GOP primary against Senator Bob Casey. Even his old boss, Senator Santorum, seems to think it's a long-shot for him to beat Casey. Scaringi says his "opposition to President Obama" inspired him to get in this race. Sure, great idea, run against a fairly popular President in the Senate race. Great idea.

I rarely have any advice for Congressman Dent, because I generally find his representation to be weak. The guy does very little for the Lehigh Valley. Nevertheless, Dent should run for the Senate seat. Yes, he won comfortably in 2010, but he'll never have a whiter, older electorate than he did that year, and now that Democrats are starting to get better candidates to run against him than they used to, that won't end. He has no future of moving up if he doesn't go now. It saves him some hassle later.