Sherrod Brown Looking Better In Ohio

Great news from the Buckeye State:

There's been a fundamental shift in the Ohio political landscape over the last three months and it looks like the biggest beneficiary of that could be Sherrod Brown.

When PPP polled Ohio in December Brown looked extremely vulnerable for reelection, polling at only 40-43% in match ups against four potential Republican opponents. That gave him anything from a tie (against Mike DeWine) to an eight point lead (against Jim Jordan.) Now Brown is at 48-49% against six different Republicans we tested and his leads range from 15 to 19 points.

There are not big differences among the GOP candidates in how they fare against Brown. Drew Carey and Secretary of State Jon Husted come the closest to him, each trailing by 15 points at 49-34. Treasurer Josh Mandel does next best, trailing by 16 points at 48-32. He's followed by Congressman Steve LaTourette, who has an 18 point deficit at 48-30. And bringing up the rear are Congressman Jim Jordan and Lieutenant Governor Mary Taylor, each down by 19 at 49-30.

Not even Drew Carey makes this race super competitive right now. There's a real shift going on in the Midwest since November. The overreach of Governor Kasich, much like Walker in Wisconsin, is turning the state back towards Democrats. Hopefully Senator Brown, a great first-term Senator, can pull it through.

Looks Like Charlie Dent and Jim Gerlach Are Wimping Out

I've already told you why Charlie Dent should go ahead and run for the U.S. Senate. Passing now means giving up for at least 8 years any chance at higher office, and probably having stayed in the House so long that he won't be viewed as viable. He'll never be a major chairman, or leader in the House. Well, apparently, I'm not so convincing, as Dent's not expected to enter, nor is Jim Gerlach.

Basically, here's all they're seeing.

Gerlach and Dent have been in office longer than the rookies elected last year. But after being targeted relentlessly by Democrats in recent years — Gerlach especially — both are finally in seats that are relatively secure. They have plum new committee assignments and can expect their seats to become safer in the coming Republican-controlled redistricting process.

But Republican reluctance to engage Casey also reflects the inherent strength of the senator’s political profile. A moderate, anti-abortion Democrat from working-class Scranton and the son of a popular former governor, Casey is a formidable target. Forty-eight percent of registered voters approved of his job performance and only 22 percent disapproved in a recent Muhlenberg College poll — about as high as an incumbent in swing-state Pennsylvania can realistically enjoy. And he has the added benefit of standing for reelection in a presidential election year, when turnout in the Democratic strongholds of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh will be significantly higher than in 2010.

So basically, they can't win, and it would be hard to try. So instead, Eastern Pennsylvania is stuck with a pair of Congressmen who aren't going anywhere, aren't getting much done, and just want us to keep them around in Congress for life.

Wonderful.

This Clown Stands Between Charlie Dent and Senator Casey

My local Congressman, Charlie Dent, has been rumored to be a candidate for the U.S. Senate, and why not? He'll never be Speaker or in leadership in a far-right Republican Caucus in the House, the Governor's Mansion and one Senate seat are blocked to him by other Republicans, and there is no other higher office to seek. So basically, it's put up or shut up time for him. One has to assume that eventually residents of the Lehigh Valley will become tired of a back-bencher who doesn't pass much substantial legislation, and caucuses with a party they largely don't identify with. Basically, if he doesn't run now, he'll never be on par for influence with say, Senator Toomey.

Meet Marc Scaringi (pictured above), the far-right whack job that is currently in the GOP primary against Senator Bob Casey. Even his old boss, Senator Santorum, seems to think it's a long-shot for him to beat Casey. Scaringi says his "opposition to President Obama" inspired him to get in this race. Sure, great idea, run against a fairly popular President in the Senate race. Great idea.

I rarely have any advice for Congressman Dent, because I generally find his representation to be weak. The guy does very little for the Lehigh Valley. Nevertheless, Dent should run for the Senate seat. Yes, he won comfortably in 2010, but he'll never have a whiter, older electorate than he did that year, and now that Democrats are starting to get better candidates to run against him than they used to, that won't end. He has no future of moving up if he doesn't go now. It saves him some hassle later.

Senator Corker Safe- Sort Of.

Senator Corker is likely to be re-elected- unless Former Governor Phil Bredesen gets in the race.

In a new PPP poll, Corker fends off several Democratic candidates, but trails Bredesen by five points, 46% to 41%. None of the other Democratic challengers even came close in the poll.

Corker led Rep. Jim Cooper 50% to 32%; topped former Rep. Bart Gordon 52% to 29%; and bested former Rep. Harold Ford Jr. 55% to 32%. And in two bonus fantasy match-ups, Corker led former Tennessee Senator and Vice President Al Gore 53% to 38%, and beat country singer Tim McGraw 50% to 28%.
Bredesen left office this year afters erving two terms as governor and remains extremely popular in the state. In the poll, 63% of respondents had a favorable opinion of Bredesen, versus 19% who viewed him unfavorably.

Corker, meanwhile, has a tepid approval rating, with just 42% of Tennesseans approving of his job performance, and 36% disapproving.

So, what's the odds he runs? I'd say 50/50. Bredesen is more conservative than a lot of the Democrats in DC, but he's a pragmatist at heart. Tennessee is tough in a Presidential year for a Democrat, however he does better than everyone else. Bredesen kind of has to run if he wants a future in politics though- he's done as Governor, and Senator Alexander is tough to beat. So, if Bredesen wants to be politically involved, he'll get in here. If not, Senator Corker will cruise.

Senator Olympia Snowe Is In Trouble

In 2010, Maine elected Republican Tea-Partier Paul LePage as their new Governor. Now, the Tea Party appears to be set on knocking off moderate-Republican Senator Olympia Snowe in Maine. Her poll numbers are weak, and the Tea Partiers think they can win. Snowe, seeking a fourth term, trails the 2006 Gubernatorial GOP nominee. The successes of 2010 will make the Tea Party crowd think they can win a general election too.

They can't win a general, but I'm glad they think so. First off, I think Snowe is done if anyone serious runs against her. I don't feel bad for her the way I do for Lugar though. What has she brought to the Senate in recent years? She negotiated down the Stimulus Bill, knocking down it's ability to work too. She teased bi-partisanship on Health Care Reform, but went the other way in the end. I think she'll lose a real primary, and I think that is good. Democrats need to take this race serious, and find a good, strong candidate. In a Presidential year, any candidate worth their salt will not lose to a Tea Party backed nominee.

Democrats Need Him, And Kaine Could Win In Virginia

Republicans seemed quite happy today when the news broke out of Virginia, that Senator Jim Webb will not run for a second term in the U.S. Senate. This isn't shocking, as Webb is a Democrat who once worked for Reagan, and the hyper-partisan Hill atmosphere probably wore him down. Republicans think this means the seat is their's to take, especially with former Senator George Allen in the race already, six years after losing to Webb.

Well, not so fast. President Obama and Senator Warner won this state in 2008. Allen only won his seat in 2000 with 52% of the vote. Senator Webb would appear to have been in decent re-election shape starting out. Congressman Tom Perriello looks to be in competitive shape if he ran. Governor and DNC Chairman Tim Kaine appears to be the Democratic silver bullet in the state though. Kaine beats all of the Republicans running, including the front-running Allen, by more than the margin of error. With President Obama boosting turnout in Northern Virginia and the beach region, and with Kaine's popularity around the state being solid, he appears capable of turning a tough race into a potential victory. All Kaine has to do is decide to run. The President should nudge him into it.

Senator Lugar vs. The GOP Goon Squad

Senator Richard Lugar is one of the smartest foreign policy minds in Washington. He's a respected Senator who gets things done. When a President in either party wants to get things done in the Senate, he's one of the Republicans they go to.

Well, that means he's in trouble.

Like Mike Castle from the House side, Lugar is about to learn how unpopular being a consensus-maker in the Congress is with the Tea Party. Now, Indiana State Treasurer Richard Mourdock is apparently going to challenge Senator Lugar in 2012's GOP Primary. He will be backed by the Tea Party forces who are unhappy with Lugar's voting record.

It's a sad tale for the GOP that they'd challenge Lugar in a primary, but Democrats need to react. Inevitably, any candidate in the primary against the Senator will be to his political right. This is not someone you want in the Senate. Democrats need to find a strong candidate who is ready to run. Remember, President Obama won this state in 2008. Indiana is a fairly independent, right-of-center state. A strong candidate may have a chance against a far-right candidate in 2012, even if the President lost Indiana.

Polling: Huntsman Doesn't Win His Home State, Feinstein Cruising

Ambassador Jon Huntsman might want to think again about his running for President. Right now, he would get CRUSHED by Mitt Romney in a Presidential Primary in Utah, trailing 65%-16%. However, he would easily beat Senator Orrin Hatch and Congressman Jason Chaffetz, leading 40%-26%-30% right now in the match up. He does even better against them both with the broader electorate, suggesting that if his flirtation with a run for the Presidency ended early enough, the Ambassador could trade in his office for the Senate in 2012.

From deep red Utah to deep blue California, Democrats got some welcome news heading towards 2012. Senator Dianne Feinstein crushes all Republicans in hypothetical match-ups according to PPP, winning by anywhere from 14% to 34%. Feinstein crushes both 2010 statewide candidates, the Governator, and the only Republican with a net-positive rating (Tom Campbell, who's 21%-18% positive-negative rating is helped by no one knowing him). Add onto this Feinstein's own 50%-39% positive/negative rating, and you see a scenario that could save the Democrats a LOT of money.

Nelson In Trouble, The Democratic Majority Is Even Worse

Ben Nelson trails both of his tier one opponents for 2012. He trails the Attorney General of Nebraska by 11%, but he trails the Treasurer by only 4%. While these are bad numbers, he can hang his hat on not being Blanche Lincoln levels of bad.

There's a larger context to this. Democrats can pretty much write off North Dakota at this point, barring a recruiting coup and a GOP nominee that isn't acceptable, and of course a strong President. Montana Republicans got their one and only House member to challenge Senator Tester. Republicans are lining up for battle in Virginia and Missouri. Democrats still aren't completely out of the woods in Pennsylvania and Ohio. They may have to spend in California and Connecticut too. So basically, they have three really, really in danger, two in for the fight of their life, two they still have to watch, and two more they have to spend on. And I didn't count in Minnesota and Florida, both races which could get interesting. If the Democrats lose 4 seats, they lose the Senate. They do have some places to go on offense, namely Nevada and Massachusetts right now, and possibly places like Maine and Indiana if the Tea Party goes after those Republicans. Still though, the current map is tough.

The 2012 Senate Map

Much of the attention for 2012 is on the Presidential race, as well it should be. It's only the most powerful office in the country. It's not necessarily the most important election up for grabs though. In fact, it's far from. While the President looks decently strong heading into 2012, his party's hold on the U.S. Senate is a ginger footing. This could have grave consequences. Even right now, the reason right-wing reaches, such as repealing the health care law, are dying in the Senate. A simple flip in power would force votes on issues such as this, and others, and would take them one step closer to law. So, knowing that importance, we're going to come out with our first Senate race ratings of the year.

SOLID DEMOCRAT HOLD-

Washington (Cantwell)

Delaware (Carper)

Hawaii (Akaka)

Maryland (Cardin)

New Jersey (Menendez)

New York (Gillibrand)

Rhode Island (Whitehouse)

Vermont (Sanders)

SOLID REPUBLICAN HOLD-

Wyoming (Barrasso)

Utah (Hatch)

Tennessee (Corker)

Mississippi (Wicker)

Texas (Open)

DEMOCRATIC SEATS IN PLAY-

Wisconsin (Kohl)

West Virginia (Manchin)

Virginia (Webb)

Pennsylvania (Casey)

New Mexico (Bingaman)

Ohio (Brown)

McCaskill (Missouri)

Minnesota (Klobuchar)

Michigan (Stabenow)

Florida (Nelson)

California (Feinstein)

Connecticut (Open)

REPUBLICAN SEATS IN PLAY-

Arizona (Kyl)

Indiana (Lugar)

Maine (Snowe)

DEMOCRATIC SEATS IN DANGER-

North Dakota (Open)

Montana (Tester)

Nebraska (Nelson)

REPUBLICAN SEATS IN DANGER-

Massachusetts (Brown)

Nevada (Ensign)

On the surface, let's start with the "in danger" category. On the GOP side, Ensign's a dead-man walking- just we have to see whether he dies in the primary or the general. Either way, the Dems showed they can win there in a tough year, so it's a good opportunity. Massachusetts will be on until Brown wins again, most likely. You don't get Martha Coakley every time. On the Democratic side, North Dakota looks gone, and Nelson has an uphill battle in Nebraska. Tester isn't necessarily weak in Montana, but he has an opponent raising good money so far. The issue will be how many of the "in play" Democratic seats fall into play. Places like Pennsylvania look like they could fall out of play, while places like Virginia may do the opposite. Recruitment of candidates, money raised, and the climate up-ticket will play a huge role in those seats. The GOP "in play" seats have a variety of factors. Senator Lugar could face a Tea Party challenger. If he does, the seat may suddenly be very winnable. Senator Kyl is solid right now, but what if President Obama is rolling in 2012, and McCain isn't on the ticket this time? Snowe, well, who knows up there. Right now, the picture on the Senate is incomplete.