The Forgotten Candidate

The 2012 Senate Map

Much of the attention for 2012 is on the Presidential race, as well it should be. It's only the most powerful office in the country. It's not necessarily the most important election up for grabs though. In fact, it's far from. While the President looks decently strong heading into 2012, his party's hold on the U.S. Senate is a ginger footing. This could have grave consequences. Even right now, the reason right-wing reaches, such as repealing the health care law, are dying in the Senate. A simple flip in power would force votes on issues such as this, and others, and would take them one step closer to law. So, knowing that importance, we're going to come out with our first Senate race ratings of the year.

SOLID DEMOCRAT HOLD-

Washington (Cantwell)

Delaware (Carper)

Hawaii (Akaka)

Maryland (Cardin)

New Jersey (Menendez)

New York (Gillibrand)

Rhode Island (Whitehouse)

Vermont (Sanders)

SOLID REPUBLICAN HOLD-

Wyoming (Barrasso)

Utah (Hatch)

Tennessee (Corker)

Mississippi (Wicker)

Texas (Open)

DEMOCRATIC SEATS IN PLAY-

Wisconsin (Kohl)

West Virginia (Manchin)

Virginia (Webb)

Pennsylvania (Casey)

New Mexico (Bingaman)

Ohio (Brown)

McCaskill (Missouri)

Minnesota (Klobuchar)

Michigan (Stabenow)

Florida (Nelson)

California (Feinstein)

Connecticut (Open)

REPUBLICAN SEATS IN PLAY-

Arizona (Kyl)

Indiana (Lugar)

Maine (Snowe)

DEMOCRATIC SEATS IN DANGER-

North Dakota (Open)

Montana (Tester)

Nebraska (Nelson)

REPUBLICAN SEATS IN DANGER-

Massachusetts (Brown)

Nevada (Ensign)

On the surface, let's start with the "in danger" category. On the GOP side, Ensign's a dead-man walking- just we have to see whether he dies in the primary or the general. Either way, the Dems showed they can win there in a tough year, so it's a good opportunity. Massachusetts will be on until Brown wins again, most likely. You don't get Martha Coakley every time. On the Democratic side, North Dakota looks gone, and Nelson has an uphill battle in Nebraska. Tester isn't necessarily weak in Montana, but he has an opponent raising good money so far. The issue will be how many of the "in play" Democratic seats fall into play. Places like Pennsylvania look like they could fall out of play, while places like Virginia may do the opposite. Recruitment of candidates, money raised, and the climate up-ticket will play a huge role in those seats. The GOP "in play" seats have a variety of factors. Senator Lugar could face a Tea Party challenger. If he does, the seat may suddenly be very winnable. Senator Kyl is solid right now, but what if President Obama is rolling in 2012, and McCain isn't on the ticket this time? Snowe, well, who knows up there. Right now, the picture on the Senate is incomplete.

Meet The GOP Field: The Front-Runners

It's that time again.... the 2012 Election is going to begin any day now (well, we think). By my count, 18 Republican names are floating about for 2012, and in the coming months at least some of them will arrive in Des Moines and Nashua, and will begin courting the activists in Columbia and Carson City. You'll see them from Sioux City to Davenport, and everywhere in between. You'll see them on the Sea Coast, and in Manchester. The campaign will begin, in earnest.

We're going to start by looking at the heavyweights of the GOP Primary field for 2012. The four candidates we open with all start with a substantial head-start on the field- but with some drawbacks. We'll review who they are, how we describe them, and why they will or won't win the nomination. Here we go.

• Mike Huckabee- The former Governor of Arkansas. He is both social conservative, and by the current GOP's standards an economic moderate. Don't get me wrong, Huckabee is right of center for sure on economics, but he's not for abolishing the Department of Education, right now. Huckabee's pathway to victory is clear. He must reclaim the social conservative base that won him Iowa in 2008, and then use that momentum to capture the South Carolina primary afterwards to catapult him to the nomination. If he loses, it'll be because he's old news, his rhetoric is too soft, and he's the "other guy from Hope, Arkansas."
• Sarah Palin- The former Governor of Alaska. She is the darling of the Tea Party activists, a star with social conservatives, the largest media celebrity in the race, and the candidate of the anti-intellectualism movement. Palin can win the nomination because she inspires the exact kind of activists that carry the day in Iowa, her rhetoric reaches the Tea Party crowd who has been winning primaries, and has less of a record to explain than the other front-runners. If she loses, it'll be because she's unelectable, is hopeless in New Hampshire's open primary, and she runs a lazy, media driven campaign. Her race could be over quick with a weak showing in Iowa, or no wins in Iowa and South Carolina.
• Mitt Romney- The former Governor of Massachusetts. Romney is supposed to be Mr. Electable, straight out of central-casting. He is guy who can reach independents, the "moderate" on social issues who can speak in "business language." Romney must build on his runner-up finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire in 2008, and most certainly must win New Hampshire. If he loses, it's because he's altered every position he has, he gets called a liberal, his health care law is too big of an issue, he's unable to come up with a platform of ideas, he's a re-run candidate, and his ugly corporate past comes up.
• Newt Gingrich- The former Speaker of the House of Representatives. Gingrich is the "modern intellectual father" of the conservative movement, a social and economic conservative. Gingrich can run on the "good old days"- the 90's, particularly in a bad economy. He will attempt to run strong in all of the early states, and may be the only of the front-runners who can do so. If he loses, it'll be because his closet has more skeletons than a grave yard, is no longer fresh and exciting, and he has no extremely strong appeal in any of these early states, and oh yeah, he isn't electable.

Well, that's that for now. We'll have more later.

Rahm Emanuel Holds Huge Leads In Polls And Cash In Chicago

For those hoping to see Former White House Chief Of Staff Rahm Emanuel fall on his face in Chicago, the news is not good. First off, he has a huge lead in cash. He raised $10 million at year's end, and has $8.3 million on hand. Two of the other three main contenders have reported being at no better than a fifth of his fundraising so far. Secondly, Emanuel appears to be approaching the 50% barrier in polling, now standing at 44%, with a 23% lead.

Go Rahm.

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Ted Kennedy Jr. For Connecticut Senator?

First Susan Bysiewicz, the Connecticut Secretary of State, got in the U.S. Senate race there against Joe Lieberman. Then Lieberman called it a career. Then Congressman Chris Murphy got in the race. With talk of still others having interest, this was shaping up as one of the most exciting races of the next election cycle. Now, a giant of a name is looking at the race.

Rumors put Ted Kennedy Jr. interested in replacing Senator Lieberman in 2013. In fact, they say he was seen with former Connecticut Senator Chris Dodd in the cafe at the Russell Senate Office Building. To say the least, this is a major, major development in this race. Kennedy would likely be a star with the left and a fundraising giant. Considering that neither Murphy or Bysiewicz have the considerable electoral prowess of Senator Blumenthal, who replaced Dodd and beat back the self-funding Linda McMahon, a giant personality like Kennedy may make a lot of sense. At the same time, unlike either of them, Kennedy has never won an election. This makes for an interesting race, and could lead to a highly spirited primary.

Yesterday marked 50 years since the JFK Inauguration. It was also the first time in even longer that no Kennedy was serving in federal office. As I write this, rumors are out there about Vicki Kennedy or Joe Kennedy running against Scott Brown in 2012 for the Massachusetts Senate seat. There is talk that if Senator Jack Reed were to join the Obama Cabinet (as Defense Secretary most likely), Patrick Kennedy could return to office as his replacement as the U.S. Senator from Rhode Island. Now, talk about Ted Kennedy Jr. Perhaps it's not the end of the line for the political dynasty from Cape Cod.

Jim Messina To Manage President Obama's Re-Election

Deputy White House Chief of Staff Jim Messina will leave the Obama White House- to go back to Chicago and manage his re-election campaign. He'll be joined by White House Social Secretary and former Obama National Finance Director Julianna Smoot and DNC Executive Director Jennifer O'Malley-Dillon, who will be the Deputy Managers. The President will launch his re-election campaign in either March or April.

I predict he wins.  

Speaker John Gets A Reason To Cry

Speaker John Boehner is a Republican. He thinks the government should simply do less, and the hell with the results. The thing is, Boehner lives in reality, while many in his caucus do not. You see, Speaker Boehner and House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-WI) are saying that they can't actually cut $100 billion from this year's budget when the budget year is half over. That's not good enough to the new Tea Party members. In fact, the Republican Study Committee wants $125 billion this year. Basically, the Leadership will have some angry members if they come back with $40 billion or $60 billion in cuts. To hell with the impact of these cuts to the current year, they want the huge cuts.

Let's be clear here. They are asking for $125 billion in cuts, excluding any cuts to Defense, Entitlements, and Health Care costs, major drivers of the federal deficit. In fact, the "discretionary" cuts they are asking for come from a pool of money that is less than $700 billion. So they are asking for a nearly 20% cut from all the programs that go towards the public.  You see, the federal budget is $3.8 trillion. Of that, 56% of the money is in non-discretionary areas. Another $251 billion is interest on the old debt. That's about $2.4 trillion of the budget there. The rest of that is "discretionary," and half of that is military spending. So basically, they want to cut all the "other departments": Education, Transportation, Energy, EPA, and Labor, to name a few. Sounds pretty rough, right?

I don't feel bad for Speaker Boehner, not one bit. He and Eric Cantor wanted to be in charge. So they built up this caucus full of radicals. Does their proposal make any sense? No. We're running a trillion dollar plus deficit, but these guys first inclination is to cut a part of the budget that even if completely eliminated wouldn't balance a budget. Well, it's insane. No feeling bad for John Boehner though. He wanted to be important. Well, he is.

Palin, Bachmann Scoping Out Iowa

Two (crazy) women, two different approaches to running for the GOP Presidential nomination in Iowa. Apparently, both Sarah Palin and Michele Bachmann are taking a serious look at Iowa, and their opportunities there, but their road there is different.

Sarah Palin is walking softly. She has sent aides to the state to meet with key grassroots activists. Palin herself isn't visible in Iowa much yet, and she is essentially bypassing the major establishment leaders in favor of the grassroots types. She has no specific staffers there yet, and she doesn't have anyone assigned to coordinate the state.

Michele Bachmann is going the other way on this one. The Congresswoman is meeting tomorrow with Governor Branstad and the GOP Chairman Matt Strawn. She is going to meet with state lawmakers as well. Bachmann also will give an anti-tax speech, meet with the Tea Party, and work the coffee shop circuit in Des Moines during her weekend visit. It's safe to say she's going straight to the top.

So, who has the better approach? History may mislead us here. Vice-President Biden had the deep support with state legislators in 2008, while Secretary of State Clinton had the backing of the popular former Governor (Vilsack). Labor lined up hard behind Clinton and former Senator Edwards. President Obama spent millions building a grassroots campaign that was unmatched. Senator Edwards built on top of his strong grassroots 2004 team. They finished first and second. I would say Palin has the better idea of these two, but let's temper that for a moment. She needs to engage herself here, and put serious staff in. If she does that, she has the right idea. If not, she's done. As for Bachmann, endorsements don't win caucuses, but they do help. She appears committed to the state right now. That's likely to help her down the road. Both have a lot of work to do against Huckabee and Romney, who finished first and second here in 2008.

The GOP's Fiscal Fix: Everybody But The Fat Cats Pay

Well, here come the details. The House Republican Study Committee proposed $2.5 trillion of cuts to the budget in the next decade. What's in it? Well, deep cuts to the District of Columbia, for whom the Congress is largely responsible, including to their famed and beloved "Metro." The regular cuts to the National Endowment for the Arts. We're used to them hating art. They want to cut PBS- I didn't know it was a conservative position to hate Big Bird and Cookie Monster. Deep cuts to Public Housing made the list too- because those people don't need a roof over their heads, put them on the streets. Oh yeah, and why keep Amtrak up and running, after all, the rest of the world is realizing the potential of railways.

Now, the reality is that there will be spending cuts, even if "discretionary" spending isn't the reason for deficits. Chances are, the GOP controlled House will insist on cutting some money for the most disadvantaged in our society, be it in public housing, public health, or public education. That's a reality we have to live with. The insulting thing about this plan is though, these guys didn't even touch the "fat cats" and the tough issues. There's no discussion of the Defense Department Budget, even though everyone up to the Secretary of Defense thinks the budget is full of waste. There's no discussion of entitlements, even though they (and health care) drive the deficit. Nowhere are they attempting to cut subsidies to "Agro-business" and the Petroleum sector. Nothing. ALL of the sacrifice the GOP is calling for comes from programs that help working people and poor people. Shared sacrifice? Not from the GOP.