It's that time again.... the 2012 Election is going to begin any day now (well, we think). By my count, 18 Republican names are floating about for 2012, and in the coming months at least some of them will arrive in Des Moines and Nashua, and will begin courting the activists in Columbia and Carson City. You'll see them from Sioux City to Davenport, and everywhere in between. You'll see them on the Sea Coast, and in Manchester. The campaign will begin, in earnest. We're going to start by looking at the heavyweights of the GOP Primary field for 2012. The four candidates we open with all start with a substantial head-start on the field- but with some drawbacks. We'll review who they are, how we describe them, and why they will or won't win the nomination. Here we go.
- Mike Huckabee- The former Governor of Arkansas. He is both social conservative, and by the current GOP's standards an economic moderate. Don't get me wrong, Huckabee is right of center for sure on economics, but he's not for abolishing the Department of Education, right now. Huckabee's pathway to victory is clear. He must reclaim the social conservative base that won him Iowa in 2008, and then use that momentum to capture the South Carolina primary afterwards to catapult him to the nomination. If he loses, it'll be because he's old news, his rhetoric is too soft, and he's the "other guy from Hope, Arkansas."
- Sarah Palin- The former Governor of Alaska. She is the darling of the Tea Party activists, a star with social conservatives, the largest media celebrity in the race, and the candidate of the anti-intellectualism movement. Palin can win the nomination because she inspires the exact kind of activists that carry the day in Iowa, her rhetoric reaches the Tea Party crowd who has been winning primaries, and has less of a record to explain than the other front-runners. If she loses, it'll be because she's unelectable, is hopeless in New Hampshire's open primary, and she runs a lazy, media driven campaign. Her race could be over quick with a weak showing in Iowa, or no wins in Iowa and South Carolina.
- Mitt Romney- The former Governor of Massachusetts. Romney is supposed to be Mr. Electable, straight out of central-casting. He is guy who can reach independents, the "moderate" on social issues who can speak in "business language." Romney must build on his runner-up finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire in 2008, and most certainly must win New Hampshire. If he loses, it's because he's altered every position he has, he gets called a liberal, his health care law is too big of an issue, he's unable to come up with a platform of ideas, he's a re-run candidate, and his ugly corporate past comes up.
- Newt Gingrich- The former Speaker of the House of Representatives. Gingrich is the "modern intellectual father" of the conservative movement, a social and economic conservative. Gingrich can run on the "good old days"- the 90's, particularly in a bad economy. He will attempt to run strong in all of the early states, and may be the only of the front-runners who can do so. If he loses, it'll be because his closet has more skeletons than a grave yard, is no longer fresh and exciting, and he has no extremely strong appeal in any of these early states, and oh yeah, he isn't electable.
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