Anyone Awake In Iowa And New Hampshire???

It's January 27th, 2011. No one's running for President yet. Apparently, the polls aren't moving yet either. PPP Polling suggests no one has gone up more than 3% in Iowa or New Hampshire since May. No one. Not even Sarah Palin, who some are declaring is politically "dead." Welcome to the 2012 election.

Here's Iowa:

Candidate May 2010 January 2011 Shift
Mike Huckabee 27% 30% +3
Sarah Palin 17% 15% -2
Newt Gingrich 16% 13% -3
Mitt Romney 15% 18% +3
Ron Paul 7% 6% -1
John Thune 2% 3% +1

Got that? Here's New Hampshire:

Candidate April 2010 October 2010 Shift
Mitt Romney 39% 40% +1
Mike Huckabee 11% 13% +2
Newt Gingrich 11% 10% -1
Sarah Palin 13% 10% -3
Tim Pawlenty 3% 4% +1

So what's it mean? Well, first off, it means that no one's paying attention to people who aren't declared candidates. Shocking, I know. This also means that fundraising totals for the tier twos- Pawlenty, Bachmann, Thune, etc.- will be crucial. Could there be room for a late run at this? Yeah, but only for funded candidates. My sense is that this favors the front-runners. Romney, Huckabee, Palin, and Gingrich all will gather lots of attention no matter the early polling, and to be ahead means they will squeeze others out. It could hurt them too, if they all stay stagnant for months. We'll see in due time I guess, but clearly no one has the early mo'.