Monday, January 24, 2011

Meet the GOP Field: The Fringers, Interest Group Candidates, and Far-Right








Don't call these candidates for 2012 "mainstream" or "contenders," but they're talking about getting in.
  • Rick Santorum- the former Senator from Pennsylvania. He's going to attempt to run as the "pro-life" candidate in this race. He won't win though. His 2006 beat-down will dog him throughout, and he'll have trouble convincing anyone that he's a.) credible for the fall, and b.) better than the front-runners. He may show well in Iowa and South Carolina though.
  • Ron Paul- Congressman from Texas. Ron Paul is a libertarian leader in this nation, and will attract his 2008 supporters again. His opposition to American Foreign Policy makes him an interesting candidate, but not one who stands out anymore in 2012. He won't show much better than 2008 unless he gets the actual intellectual credit he deserves for inspiring the Tea Party. Don't bank on it.
  • Rick Perry- Governor of Texas. He wants to re-contest the Civil War. In fact, he's wondered out loud about leaving the Union. That might win him some fans, and make him a contender in South Carolina at first, but it won't help him make a case to party elders that he can win. Oh yeah, and Texas large deficit looming, despite being the conservative dream state, won't help him contrast with Obama.
  • Mike Pence- Is he in? Is he in for Governor? Well, either way, the conservative far-right loves this Indiana Congressman, and if he runs, he may even catch some wind. The issue he'll have is convincing people that he can go from being a conservative House leadership member to being a real alternative to President Obama in swing states. Also, some of his solutions to America's problems sit on the wrong side of 50%.
  • Gary Johnson- former Governor of New Mexico. He's for legalizing pot. Do I need to go on?
  • Michele Bachmann- Congresswoman from Minnesota. She's a Tea Party icon from Iowa's northern neighbor, which gives her a punchers chance, but her odds of winning really are dictated by Sarah Palin's willingness to run. If Palin stays out, Bachmann has a prayer at the nomination, but polling suggests she does even worse than Palin against President Obama.
  • John Bolton- Bush's former unconfirmed Ambassador to the UN. I have no idea what this guy is going to run on, besides disliking the UN? Iraq and Afghanistan are still not popular enough to run on the pro side of. I see no way he goes anywhere.
  • Jim DeMint- Senator from South Carolina. He's a huge state's rights guy, and a beloved figure for conservatives of all stripes. He holds things up like Unemployment Benefits in the Senate, and is always with the "pro-life" crowd on everything. He would be the favorite in South Carolina, if he ran. IF. I get the sense he's more interested in being the Senate leader though. Boy, would that be dysfunctional. If he ran, he would not be able to win outside of the Deep South in the general election.

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