Friday, January 21, 2011

Meet the GOP Field: The Beltway Loved Darkhorses






It's not a secret. There are a lot of Republicans inside the Beltway who don't think any of their front-runners for President are good candidates, let alone electable. For them, the search for a "white knight" has been on. Their belief that even an unprepared standard bearing candidate would be more helpful to Senatorial hopes than say, Sarah Palin, has driven this search on. Let's meet the people they are looking at, and weight out their pros and cons.

  • Tim Pawlenty- the now former Governor of Minnesota is in this race, whether he's filed or not. He's working Iowa hard, hoping that being the "neighboring son" will help. Pawlenty is not a moderate, but he will be cast as one in this primary field, and frankly may be one comparatively, if not in fact. Pawlenty has a chance to win this nomination because he has a chance to do well in Iowa. If he does that, he may be able to at least make the ticket. One would think of him as a possible challenger to Romney in New Hampshire. His problems? Not that many people know who he is, he has a hard time making an electability argument when Obama would beat him in his home state, and his rhetoric will need to get harsher without sounding fake.
  • Haley Barbour- the Governor of Mississippi. He's a former RNC Chairman, a candidate who should be able to curry favor with social conservatives, and should be very competitive in at least South Carolina, if not Iowa too. Barbour knows everyone in the party, and should be able to raise a nice sum of cash. His problems? Imagine the imagery of a white, southern Governor with a history of some gaffes speaking on civil rights, matched up against the first African-American President. He also wouldn't appear on the surface to be a great candidate with independents.
  • Scott Brown- the Senator from Massachusetts. He's the darling of the Beltway, the guy who won in New England. Brown would run strong in New Hampshire, and could sway independents. His negatives? He probably won't run, he has about a year of Senate time in, he probably can't appeal to the primary electorate, and again, he wouldn't have a good electability argument while losing his home state to the President. Of course, it gracefully gets him out of the U.S. Senate race he may lose.
  • Chris Christie- the Governor of New Jersey. He's a favorite with Beltway conservatives for his deep cuts to the New Jersey budget. As a former U.S. Attorney, he has some increased credibility as well. Again, he probably won't run. His negatives? He's not that popular at home right now, and he could see some losses in legislative races in 2011 there, which won't help him look strong. He also loses his home state. He has some gaffes that won't help him nationally. Again though, this would get him out of a tough re-election. 
  • Marco Rubio- the Senator from Florida. Can we just put him on the VP short-list now? He's Cuban-American, from Florida, won a swing state Senate race, and has a great story. His flaws? He probably won't run. He's probably too conservative for a Presidential year GENERAL electorate, and has a lot of legislative record to run against. He's also largely untested in a truly tough race (Crist wasn't tough).
  • Bobby Jindal- the Governor of Louisiana. Jindal is a Governor, Indian American, and articulate. He has problems though? He flubbed his State of the Union Response. In light of Romney's religious troubles running, can a non-white candidate win their nomination? Reaction of his handling to the BP spill splits completely partisanly. He also has an extensive Congressional record to run against.
  • Paul Ryan- Congressman from Wisconsin, and the Budget Committee Chairman. He's a darling of fiscal conservatives, a prodigy at fundraising, and from a key region of the nation. He's the most articulate of the field. His problem? Well for one, his "Roadmap" Budget would make him nearly unelectable. He's also the guy who has to make the cuts to the budget the GOP has promised. That will get some opposition.

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