The 2012 Senate Map

Much of the attention for 2012 is on the Presidential race, as well it should be. It's only the most powerful office in the country. It's not necessarily the most important election up for grabs though. In fact, it's far from. While the President looks decently strong heading into 2012, his party's hold on the U.S. Senate is a ginger footing. This could have grave consequences. Even right now, the reason right-wing reaches, such as repealing the health care law, are dying in the Senate. A simple flip in power would force votes on issues such as this, and others, and would take them one step closer to law. So, knowing that importance, we're going to come out with our first Senate race ratings of the year.

SOLID DEMOCRAT HOLD-

Washington (Cantwell)

Delaware (Carper)

Hawaii (Akaka)

Maryland (Cardin)

New Jersey (Menendez)

New York (Gillibrand)

Rhode Island (Whitehouse)

Vermont (Sanders)

SOLID REPUBLICAN HOLD-

Wyoming (Barrasso)

Utah (Hatch)

Tennessee (Corker)

Mississippi (Wicker)

Texas (Open)

DEMOCRATIC SEATS IN PLAY-

Wisconsin (Kohl)

West Virginia (Manchin)

Virginia (Webb)

Pennsylvania (Casey)

New Mexico (Bingaman)

Ohio (Brown)

McCaskill (Missouri)

Minnesota (Klobuchar)

Michigan (Stabenow)

Florida (Nelson)

California (Feinstein)

Connecticut (Open)

REPUBLICAN SEATS IN PLAY-

Arizona (Kyl)

Indiana (Lugar)

Maine (Snowe)

DEMOCRATIC SEATS IN DANGER-

North Dakota (Open)

Montana (Tester)

Nebraska (Nelson)

REPUBLICAN SEATS IN DANGER-

Massachusetts (Brown)

Nevada (Ensign)

On the surface, let's start with the "in danger" category. On the GOP side, Ensign's a dead-man walking- just we have to see whether he dies in the primary or the general. Either way, the Dems showed they can win there in a tough year, so it's a good opportunity. Massachusetts will be on until Brown wins again, most likely. You don't get Martha Coakley every time. On the Democratic side, North Dakota looks gone, and Nelson has an uphill battle in Nebraska. Tester isn't necessarily weak in Montana, but he has an opponent raising good money so far. The issue will be how many of the "in play" Democratic seats fall into play. Places like Pennsylvania look like they could fall out of play, while places like Virginia may do the opposite. Recruitment of candidates, money raised, and the climate up-ticket will play a huge role in those seats. The GOP "in play" seats have a variety of factors. Senator Lugar could face a Tea Party challenger. If he does, the seat may suddenly be very winnable. Senator Kyl is solid right now, but what if President Obama is rolling in 2012, and McCain isn't on the ticket this time? Snowe, well, who knows up there. Right now, the picture on the Senate is incomplete.