The PA Congressional Map?

PoliticsPA reports that this Cook Report map is the front-running candidate to be the GOP's re-districted Pennsylvania map. The map is much more "conservative" in that it only attempts to shore up GOP seats, not create new ones. It does do a number of things though.

Some observations:

• The 15th district, based in the Lehigh Valley, will no longer include Montgomery County (a good thing), but will stretch westward into Berks County, out to the Fleetwood-Kutztown area. From a common-sense, good government standpoint, this makes sense. I'm sure it makes the district slightly more red for now, but with huge growth out in the west end of the Valley, and the addition of Kutztown University, it could make the district better for a Democrat to challenge Charlie Dent. It also probably makes the district smaller from a population standpoint, although we'll see.
• Gerlach would be the big winner in this, moving further from the city, and into more of Berks. He still would not be "safe," but he wins here.
• Meehan and Fitzpatrick get marginally better seats for the GOP, but they give up on ever beating Schwartz, or the city guys.
• Holden would now have Scranton under this proposal, which I think is destined for court, although it does appear to be good to my eye. While they think this sures up Barletta, it doesn't look so to me. It keeps the Stroudsburg-East Stroudsburg area in with Wilkes-Barre, which may burn them in a few years, if not right away.
• Don't expect a Carney or Dahlkemper comeback here. With Thompson keeping State College, the 10th is a wasteland for Dems now.
• Schuster is taking in a lot of Dems in the southwest area of his district.
• Murphy only gets a bit safer out west. He gets better than he had, but not "safe."
• Critz and Altmire would be in a primary. Both would be favored to win the general, but would have to take considerable damage first.

The map is being made to make a 12-6 GOP majority in the state more permanent. They didn't make it "permanent" from my standpoint, but they did improve their odds, at the price of giving up on 5 of the 6 Dem seats for good. It'll be interesting to see if this is the final product.

PoliticsPA Outlines PA Re-Districting

PoliticsPA lists the scenarios for re-districting under consideration for the GOP.

Here are some scenarios that PA’s Republican Congressmen are talking about, according to sources close to the delegation:

Schwartz vs. Fattah
Republicans are eying the possibility of matching up two of PA’s most powerful Democrats in a fratricidal showdown. Schwartz has millions of campaign dollars and the support of the white collar liberals of the Philly suburbs. Her district currently abuts that of Chaka Fattah, the most liked public figure in Philadelphia. It’s unlikely either would be willing to budge from their seat if their districts were combined, and that would mean a knock-down, drag-out fight between the liberal white Democrats of the suburbs and the African-American Democrats of Philly. What Republican wouldn’t love to see that?

Go West, Suburban Republicans
Each of the Philly area Republicans hopes to have his district made more secure, and they’re looking west to do it. The state’s population growth is disproportionately found in south central PA, meaning that the Lancaster-based 16th district is likely to contract. That would leave room for Reps. Gerlach and Meehan to move west into the conservative parts of Chester County. Rep. Joe Pitts is the X-factor. The 71 year-old dean of the GOP delegation, Pitts lives in Chester County and would prefer to keep the seat based there.

Shuffle SWPA Dems and Beat Altmire the Old-Fashioned Way
The GOP sees Rep. Jason Altmire as the most vulnerable Democrat in PA, but Republicans (read: Reps. Tim Murphy and Bill Shuster) don’t want to pick up Democratic voters from his district. The GOP is looking at ways to move Democratic voters from Altmire’s district into either that of Rep. Mark Critz or Rep. Mike Doyle in an effort to tweak the 4th district and ensure a GOP win there. And they’re paying attention to rumblings of a Democratic primary challenger for Altmire.

Barletta Blues
No Republican plan currently on the table will make Rep. Lou Barletta’s Scranton and Wilkes-Barre-based district a sure bet for the freshman Congressman. Barring some radical shift in Tim Holden’s 17th district to include the city of Scranton (which is regarded as a distant possibility at this point), Barletta’s district will become only slightly more favorable for Republicans and will still contain the city of Scranton.

Democratic Winners
GOP plans to secure their districts will come as good news to some Democrats, who’s districts are likely to absorb the Democrats that Republicans don’t want. Some of those winners include (as of the current plans): Rep. Mark Critz, Rep. Tim Holden, and Rep. Mike Doyle. Each of their districts is likely to get more blue.

Interesting. Doesn't quite seem right. The growth was in the south-central area? I think any attempt to put Schwartz in a bind would be foolish in the long-term. Dent, Gerlach, and Fitzpatrick are all much better off without Montgomery County, a "blueing" area of the state, even if they get the north. Taking in big chunks of it won't help them. Pitts making his district Chester based also may not be a smart move, over the course of the decade. I, for one, don't think attempts to make Barletta's district more "red" will hold up in court either. For the most part, I don't think they can do a lot here. They drew this map a decade ago. They got aggressive then. They hold a lot of seats now. It's hard to sure them all up, and it's hard to aim for much more.

An Interesting Read On PA Re-Districting

Check this out. Now, I doubt they can do this because of politics (even internal party fights get into these maps), and law (the Holden district looks ridiculous). Even still, this looks like a basis for what we'll see.