Polls: Boehner Better Not Shut Down The Government

Anytime two sides go into conflict, someone wins and someone loses. In 1995, Newt Gingrich, a new Speaker of the House with a big, conservative majority, decided to shut down the government in a dispute with President Bill Clinton. The result was pretty bad for Gingrich, as Clinton got most of his way and went on to be re-elected.

Polls suggest that if Speaker John Boehner, in the exact same spot now, wants to replay that fight, he'll find the same result. From TPM:

A PPP poll of registered voters released this week showed that most Americans think a government shutdown would be bad for the country. And if a shutdown does occur, the poll also found that a majority of Americans would blame Republicans for the mess, not President Obama.

Fifty-seven percent of respondents said they believed a government shutdown would be bad for the country. At the same time, 53% said they would put more blame on congressional Republicans than on Obama for a shutdown, while just 22% said the reverse.

That finding backs up an ABC News/Washington Post poll released earlier this week, in which 45% of adults said they would blame Republicans for a shutdown, compared to 30% who said they'd blame Obama.

Basically, read that as saying "do it and pay the price." Accusations of overreaching have already done a lot of damage in state houses, and the national GOP would be well advised to hear those cases out. If they choose to go into this fight with the White House, and take the President to the mat on spending levels, they are at great risk for political destruction. The Democrats will need roughly 25 seats (the exact number will be more clear after re-districting) to re-take the House, and Speaker Boehner would be well advised to not hand it over on his own. I'd be fine if he does though.