Ben Nelson trails both of his tier one opponents for 2012. He trails the Attorney General of Nebraska by 11%, but he trails the Treasurer by only 4%. While these are bad numbers, he can hang his hat on not being Blanche Lincoln levels of bad. There's a larger context to this. Democrats can pretty much write off North Dakota at this point, barring a recruiting coup and a GOP nominee that isn't acceptable, and of course a strong President. Montana Republicans got their one and only House member to challenge Senator Tester. Republicans are lining up for battle in Virginia and Missouri. Democrats still aren't completely out of the woods in Pennsylvania and Ohio. They may have to spend in California and Connecticut too. So basically, they have three really, really in danger, two in for the fight of their life, two they still have to watch, and two more they have to spend on. And I didn't count in Minnesota and Florida, both races which could get interesting. If the Democrats lose 4 seats, they lose the Senate. They do have some places to go on offense, namely Nevada and Massachusetts right now, and possibly places like Maine and Indiana if the Tea Party goes after those Republicans. Still though, the current map is tough.
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